Speech
Statement by Minister Donohoe on Budget 2023
By: Minister for Finance; Paschal Donohoe
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By: Minister for Finance; Paschal Donohoe
Published on
Last updated on
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A Ceann Comhairle, I welcome the opportunity to present Budget 2023 to this House.
When we gathered in this Chamber for Budget 2022, we were emerging from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We now face a further economic challenge.
If you are an older person, you are having to spend more of your pension on heating your home; if you are looking after a family, you are facing higher grocery bills; if you are running a small business, you are trying to cope with increases in the cost of energy.
That is why Budget 2023, presented by Minister McGrath and I today, is and must be, a “Cost of Living Budget”, focused on helping individuals, families and businesses to deal with rising prices.
As we have seen all too clearly over the past few years - with Brexit, COVID and now the war in Ukraine - unforeseen risks and challenges are becoming more frequent in their occurrence and more severe in their impact. As one of the most open economies in the world, we benefit when things are going well internationally, but when they reverse, we are also one of the most exposed. As such, it is imperative that we are prepared for these shocks.
Our recovery from the pandemic is testimony to the value of that preparation. We faced the pandemic with our finances in good shape and this ensured we could both respond and recover in the aftermath.
Therefore Budget 2023 helps with the challenges of today, but will also ensure that we have sufficient reserves for what the future may yet bring. We must also be aware of the danger of making inflation worse by decisions that we could take.
The onset of the war in Ukraine has sent shockwaves throughout the global economy.
This shock is most clearly evident in energy and commodity markets, where prices surged at the onset of the war and have remained high.
Energy price inflation intensified over the summer as concerns grew regarding a complete shut-down of Russian gas supplies to continental Europe. The wholesale price of natural gas is now around eight times its average level in the years preceding the war in Ukraine.
The inflationary pressures from energy have been further compounded by the imbalance between demand and supply that emerged as the economy reopened at the start of the year. Consumers released substantial pent-up demand as restrictions were eased, while supply chain bottlenecks prevented firms from keeping up with that demand.
As a result of these factors, headline inflation in Ireland, similar to other advanced economies, is now running at highs not seen in many decades. My department is updating its forecasts to headline inflation of 8½ per cent for 2022, and just over 7 per cent for 2023.
Non-energy, or ‘core’ inflation, is also experiencing high levels of growth, suggesting spillover effects from energy and commodities markets to other sectors such as food, consumer goods, and services. My department’s forecasts for ‘core’ inflation has been revised up to 5¼ per cent this year, and just over 4½ per cent next. These developments reflect the increasingly broad-based nature of the inflationary challenge.
The pace of growth in the economy is expected to slow throughout the rest of this year as mounting inflationary pressures reduce spending power.
Tighter financial conditions and heightened economic uncertainty will also see firms hold back on investment. As a result, my department has revised down its forecast for Modified Domestic Demand – the most appropriate measure of our domestic economy – to 1¼ per cent for next year.
Let me acknowledge that these are not just abstract economic figures. The government understands, and I understand, the worries which small business owners, farmers, pensioners, those who work really hard to get by, will feel.
This is why the government will help, and by helping our country will overcome this challenge.
We can do this because our economy has strong foundations. Due to the hard work of the Irish people, the labour market has made a remarkable recovery over the past year, with well over 2½ million people in employment in the second quarter, the highest level on record, and an unemployment rate of 4.3 per cent recorded in August.
Looking ahead, while employment growth is expected to slow in line with the outlook for domestic demand, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at relatively low levels.
While the war in Ukraine poses the most immediate threat to our economy, we must remain vigilant of other risks on the horizon. Notably, Brexit could bring further challenges.
This is why our public finances matter. They have recovered strongly from the effects of the pandemic. Much of this recovery is due to their careful management over recent years and by undertaking appropriate responses to the unique challenges which we faced.
The recovery in tax receipts is broad based: at the end of August, tax revenues stood at almost €50 billion, up by over €10 billion on 2021. Income tax continues to perform well, and reflects the resilience of our labour market and the success of our employment schemes during the pandemic. The strong performance of VAT receipts confirms the rebound in consumer spending once public health restrictions were lifted.
As a result, I can announce to the House that we will register a General Government surplus of €1 billion, or just under ½ per cent of national income this year, and €6.2 billion or 2¼ per cent next year. To put this recovery in context, last year we recorded a General Government deficit of €7 billion.
While this is extremely welcome news, headline deficit and tax revenue figures do not account for the fact that much of the surge in tax revenue is due to excess corporation tax. These receipts could change significantly in the future, and with little warning. Corporation tax amounted to nearly €12 billion to end-August and my officials expect these receipts to exceed €20 billion this year. I will return to this point shortly.
It is essential that we use our surpluses wisely. We should not spend everything today; this will ensure that we are ready for tomorrow. This is what we did before COVID arrived, it worked and that is what we must do again. Because of this we could help during COVID, because of this we can help again.
While conditions have been favourable to us in recent times, it is important to note that borrowing costs for countries have also changed significantly since the start of the year and are now on a rising trajectory. The yield on 10-year government bonds has increased by over 2 percentage points since January.
While markets continue to view Irish bonds favourably, we know that market sentiment can turn swiftly. The best way to insulate the public finances from the higher cost of debt is to ensure that Ireland’s borrowing remains aligned with other small open EU Member States.
While my department’s economic projections envisage a softening in economic growth next year, the phasing out of exceptional supports and the upward revisions to the Exchequer forecasts place us in a strong position.
If we continue to follow our current strategy we should see a stabilisation of public debt at approximately €225 billion. It is also important to acknowledge that on a per capita basis, public debt amounts to around €44,000, which is among the highest in the world.
However, we will achieve a continued decline in the debt-national income ratio over the coming years by delivering budget surpluses.
By 2025, this ratio is projected at around 73 per cent - this is the lowest level seen since 2009. But this is contingent on maintaining the stance we have shown to date.
We simply do not know what challenges we will face in the future. When we face them, I believe we will prevail. A crucial economic foundation of this is managing our debt safely. It matters.
Managing the public finances allowed the government to act swiftly and decisively, to provide support to households and businesses, being especially mindful of the fact that the rising cost of living has hit hardest for those on lower incomes.
In drafting Budget 2023 Government has a responsibility to strike a delicate balance between helping with the cost of living pressures but, on the other hand, not making them worse by adding fuel to the inflationary fire.
The Summer Economic Statement set out the parameters for Budget 2023, as well as the medium-term budgetary framework.
In response to the increase in energy and other prices, the government amended its fiscal strategy for 2023 – doubling the size of the tax package and increasing public expenditure in order to protect the real value of public services.
For future years, we will aim to stay within the parameters of the medium-term budgetary strategy set out last year. This will allow us to provide for steady improvements in public services and sustainable reductions in personal taxation while still ensuring that our public finances remain on a positive trajectory.
To help families, individuals and businesses deal with the rising cost of living, Minister McGrath and I are today announcing a package of once-off measures worth €4.1 billion. This will be accompanied by budgetary measures for 2023 worth €6.9 billion.
This brings the total size of Budget 2023 to €11 billion. In addition, there will be a further €300 million in public service support measures funded from the Contingency Reserve Fund.
I appreciate that these are very significant figures. However, I also appreciate that needs are also significant. The strength in tax revenues have provided us with the additional means to undertake such a response.
As mentioned a moment ago, at end August, tax revenues were approximately €10 billion ahead of the same period last year. While much of this is due to corporation tax, just under €5 billion was due to income tax and VAT. This growth is reflective of the domestic economy’s strengthening and is what guided the scale of once-off measures for 2022.
Further, given the urgency of the situation, these measures will come into effect this year and will be outlined by Minister McGrath shortly.
On the taxation side, I am extending the current excise reduction of 21 cent per litre in respect of petrol, 16 cent per litre in respect of diesel and 5.4 cent per litre in respect of Marked Gas Oil (MGO), and the 9 per cent VAT rate for electricity and gas until 28 February 2023.
I will be introducing the necessary Financial Resolutions later this evening in order to give effect to these extensions.
As I have stated previously, one of my core objectives in Budget 2023 is to ensure that workers do not find themselves in a position where they pay more income tax solely because of inflation. There are so many people who work hard, but whose earnings push them outside of access to social welfare benefits. We need to help them too, we need to put money back into their pockets.
I am therefore announcing today an income tax package to the value of over €1.1 billion.
Firstly, I am increasing the Standard Rate Cut Off Point by €3,200 to €40,000, with proportionate increases for married couples and civil partners.
Secondly, I am also increasing the main tax credits (Personal, Employee and Earned Income Credit) by €75.
I am also increasing the Home Carer Tax Credit by €100, to support stay at home parents.
Further, I am increasing the second USC rate band (2 per cent rate) from €21,295 to €22,920 in line with the 80 cent per hour increase in the national minimum wage recently agreed by this government. The increase in the USC band will ensure that full-time workers on the minimum wage will remain outside the top rates of USC, while also giving a modest benefit to all workers whose income is above that amount.
In addition, a concession applies to those who have a medical card and earn less than €60,000 per year, such that those individuals pay a reduced rate of USC. Given the broader challenges facing people this year, I confirm the extension of this concession for a further year.
The recent report of the Tax Strategy Group (TSG) examined the impact of introducing an intermediate or third rate of income tax.
Further analysis of the TSG report would give options to Government on additional policy levers in future budgets to make our income tax system more balanced and effective.
It is agreed that this analysis will commence immediately and conclude prior to the publication of next year’s Summer Economic Statement and will take into consideration the overall macroeconomic and fiscal context. This analysis will assist government in arriving at an informed decision in a timely manner.
Were the government to opt for the introduction of a third rate of income tax, it would require considerable change to the systems in both the Revenue Commissioners and payroll providers; changes that will need significant lead-time to implement. We are advised that this could be done for January 2024.
As a result, my department will engage with the Revenue Commissioners on the necessary preparatory work, in advance of a policy decision being made by Government.
The government is also committed to developing a medium-term roadmap for personal tax reform, taking account of the recent Report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare, and will consider a range of measures across income tax, USC and PRSI together with other related personal taxation issues.
As everyone in this Chamber is well aware, housing is the central challenge facing the country over the next number of years.
Too many people cannot afford to buy their own home, or are paying too much of their income in rent. Too many people have no home at all. Hundreds of thousands of homes will be required over the next decade across all sectors, social, private and rental.
The government has made unprecedented levels of investment available to-date and we are seeing results:
Despite this progress, it is clear that Government can do more, and will do more.
The Help-to-Buy scheme has been a significant support for first time buyers of new homes. Since its inception in 2017, 35,000 people have benefitted from the scheme.
However, as with any tax expenditure, I will keep the scheme under review. Earlier this year I commissioned an independent review of Help-to-Buy and I am publishing this report today. There are a number of recommendations within that report which the government will consider for future budgets.
In the meantime, I am going to continue the scheme, at current rates, until the end of 2024.
For those taxpayers who are paying rent on their principal private residence, I am introducing a new rent tax credit valued at €500 per year.
This measure, aimed at those who do not get any other housing supports, will apply for 2023 and subsequent tax years but I am providing that it may also be claimed in respect of rent paid in 2022.
Approximately 400,000 persons are expected to benefit. Further details are contained in the Budget documentation.
I have also decided to enhance the pre-letting expenses regime for landlords by doubling the amount that may be claimed per premises to €10,000 and by reducing the period for which a premises must be vacant from twelve to six months.
Maximising the use of existing housing stock is also a key objective of this government.
Accordingly, I am introducing a Vacant Homes Tax to increase the supply of homes for rent or purchase to meet demand.
The tax will apply to residential properties which are occupied for less than 30 days in a twelve month period. There will be a number of exemptions to ensure that owners are not unfairly charged where the property may be vacant for a genuine reason.
The tax will operate on a self-assessment basis and will be administered by the Revenue Commissioners. The tax will be charged at a rate equal to three times the property’s existing basic Local Property Tax rate.
In Budget 2022 I announced a Residential Zoned Land Tax.
In order to identify zoned land within the scope of the tax, maps are currently being prepared by Local Authorities who will publish their first draft maps on the 1st of November this year. Following the publication of the maps, any person will have the opportunity to apply to their Local Authority to have the zoning status of their land amended as part of a variation process.
In Finance Bill 2022 I will bring forward a number of amendments to streamline the operation of the Residential Zoned Land Tax and ensure it is efficiently administered.
I also propose to extend the Residential Development Stamp Duty Refund Scheme to the end of 2025.
In place since 2017, this is a scheme whereby a portion of the stamp duty paid on the acquisition of non-residential land is refunded where that land is subsequently developed for residential purposes.
The net minimum stamp duty payable after a refund is 2 per cent, whereas the normal rate for non-residential property is 7½ per cent. To the end of 2021, this scheme had been availed of in respect of projects that have delivered over 15,000 residential units.
Earlier this year the government agreed a comprehensive redress scheme for those home owners who have been affected by the issue of defective products used in the building of their homes.
This redress scheme comes with a significant cost and therefore, I am bringing forward a levy on concrete blocks, pouring concrete and certain other concrete products.
The levy is expected to raise €80 million annually and will be applied from the 3rd of April 2023 at a rate of 10 per cent.
Ceann Comhairle, I want to turn to one of the other key challenges of our times, climate change, the effects of which are becoming more frequent and more destructive.
Protecting our environment is the responsibility of us all and Government is acting to reduce emissions and support newer cleaner technologies, particularly in energy and transport.
The additional funding needed for measures, such as retrofitting and more sustainable modes of travel, comes in part from carbon taxation and this is appropriate and will continue under this government.
The rate per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted for petrol and diesel will go up from €41 to €48.50 from 12 October as per the trajectory set out in the Finance Act 2020.
This will mean that there will be an increase of just over two cent VAT inclusive per litre of petrol and diesel.
However, I also recognise the sharp cost of living challenges currently faced by society, so the government is proposing to help offset this carbon tax increase with a reduction in the National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA) levy.
The NORA levy which is collected at a rate of 2 cent per litre (VAT exclusive) will help offset the carbon tax increase which means that the price at the pump will not go up as a result of taxes or levies.
We know the challenges farming communities face as they deal with rising input costs while moving towards a sustainable future.
A number of important Agricultural Reliefs are due to expire at the end of 2022. These reliefs provide important supports to our young farmers and the farming sector generally.
I will extend five agricultural tax reliefs expiring this year: the Young Trained Farmer and Farm Consolidation Stamp Duty Reliefs, the Farm Restructuring CGT relief, and the Young Trained Farmer and Registered Farm Partnership Stock Reliefs.
The duration of these extensions are dependent on the outcome of negotiations at a European Level on the Agricultural Block Exemption Regulation.
I am making provision in the Budget for a time-limited scheme of accelerated capital allowances for farmers for the construction of modern slurry storage facilities; this will assist the sector in further adopting environmentally positive farming practices.
I am today announcing specific measures to support business and enterprises in Ireland through these exceptionally challenging times.
Small and medium businesses are the backbone of our domestic economy and support thousands of jobs. The SME sector requires a range of supports as it deals with the immediate impact of the current crisis.
I am introducing a Temporary Business Energy Support Scheme to assist businesses with their energy cost over the winter months.
The scheme will be open to businesses that carry on a Case 1 trade, are tax compliant and have experienced a significant increase in their natural gas and electricity costs.
The scheme will be administered by the Revenue Commissioners and will operate on a self-assessment basis. Businesses will be required to register for the scheme and to make claims within the required time limits.
It is proposed that the scheme will operate by comparing the average unit price for the relevant bill period in 2022 with the average unit price in the corresponding reference period in 2021.
If the increase in average unit price is more than 50 per cent then the threshold would be passed and the business would be eligible for support under the scheme. Once eligibility criteria are met the support will be calculated on the basis of 40 per cent of the amount of the increase in the bill amount.
A monthly cap of €10,000 per trade will apply and an overall cap will apply on the total amount which a business can claim.
The scheme is being designed to be compliant with the EU State Aid Temporary Crisis Framework and will need to be approved by the EU Commission in the advance of making payments.
This is a significant intervention by the government in the Irish economy to protect employment. This support scheme forms a large part of our once off package. We must weaken the ability of a shock to income becoming a loss of jobs. This new policy will help employers with their rising bills, and help to save their businesses.
The Small Benefit Exemption allows an employer to provide limited non-cash benefits or rewards to their workers without the payment of income tax, PRSI and USC.
I am increasing the annual limit provided for in the exemption from €500 to €1,000 and will also permit two vouchers to be granted by an employer in a single year under this exemption.
I propose that these changes will apply in the current tax year, so that additional benefits can be paid this year if an employer wishes to do so.
Deputies should also note that I will be following through on my commitment from last year in relation to the production of cider by implementing the option in the revised EU Alcohol Directive to grant up to 50 per cent excise relief to independent small producers of cider and pear cider also known as ‘perry’.
The government is committed to supporting the night time economy – not just our hospitality sector, but also the many musicians, venues, event operators and organisers who are integral to creating a vibrant cultural life.
In line with a commitment in the Programme for Government to modernise our licensing laws, I am today announcing that we will halve the cost of applying for a Special Exemption Order, which late night venues require in order to open. This will reduce the excise fees for a special exemption application order from €110 to €55.
This aligns with a number measures we have taken to support the night time economy, and ahead of longer term reforms which will be announced when the General Scheme of the Sale of Alcohol Bill is published within weeks.
A Financial Resolution will be brought in tonight to enact this measure.
As I have previously stated, the 9 per cent VAT rate which is currently in place to support the tourism and hospitality sectors will continue until 28 February 2023.
The government is aware of the critical role that newspapers play in our society, from reporting on local communities to holding those in power to account. For that reason I will be reducing the VAT on newspapers from 9 per cent to zero from 1 January 2023.
This is in line with the government’s commitment to support an independent press and the Future of Media Commission’s recommendation on this matter.
Many Deputies in this house have contacted me seeking the removal of VAT on defibrillators and were told that it was not permitted under the EU VAT Directive. However, after much negotiation it is now possible for member states to apply a zero rate and I am happy to announce that I will apply this rate to these life-saving devices from 1 January.
I will also apply a zero rate of VAT to hormone replacement and nicotine replacement therapies, as well as the small number of period products that are currently subject to a 9 per cent rate.
Turning to the various business related tax credits:
Turning to revenue raising measures; much work is underway in the EU on capturing the windfall gains of energy companies. It is not fair for companies to earn excess profits from the current volatility in the market.
Ireland aims to be part of this EU-wide response to high energy prices. If this is not possible, this government will bring forward our own measures.
Since its introduction in 2013, the bank levy has been extended on several occasions and currently applies to the end of this year. The current annual yield of this levy is approximately €87 million per annum. I am therefore extending it for a further year.
Following the publication of the report of the Retail Banking Review, I will consider the long-term future of this levy.
To support public health policy to reduce smoking in Irish society, I am increasing excise duty on a pack of 20 cigarettes by 50 cents, with a pro-rata increase on other tobacco products.
A Ceann Comhairle, I would now like to take the opportunity to look past the immediate issues facing us today and to consider some issues which we will face over the medium to longer-term.
I very much welcome the recent publication of the report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare, and thank members for their hard work.
The Commission considered how the overall balance of taxation might shift in order to sustainably fund public services over the longer-term. Its recommendations are clearly not intended to be implemented immediately but rather provide a clear direction of travel for this and future governments around how the sustainability of the taxation and welfare systems may be improved.
The report has already fed into a number of policy actions being announced today.
As referenced earlier I have requested that the department consider the proposals related to a range of recommendations across PRSI, USC and income tax over the coming months with a view to developing a medium-term roadmap for personal taxation reform to address these and other related issues.
In the area of property, I welcome the Commission’s proposals on changes to the Local Property Tax and a Site Value Tax. These longer-term reforms are wide-ranging and require careful consideration and consultation across Government. I am also committing to commencing a review of the REIT and IREF regimes. Institutional investment has played a key role in the provision of housing in recent years. This review will consider those structures and how best they can continue to support housing policy objectives.
In addition, I also intend to commence a review of the use of Section 110 regimes and to establish a working group to consider the taxation of funds, life assurance policies and other investment products.
Another area which the Commission considered in detail is corporation tax.
The pace of international tax reform has remained intense over the past 12 months. In October last year Ireland, along with almost 140 other countries, signed up to the two-pillar solution to address the tax challenges arising from digitalisation.
Ireland has committed to the two-pillar agreement and has engaged intensively at OECD and EU level to follow through on this commitment. The agreement is in line with Ireland’s long-standing position that co-ordinated multi-lateral action is the best approach to ensuring the international tax system keeps pace with changes in how business today is conducted internationally.
Work is continuing to develop the multiple new elements required to give effect to the Pillar Two minimum effective tax rate. This work will continue over the coming months, in conjunction with serious consideration of options for a move towards a territorial corporation tax system.
Needless to say, Ireland’s corporation tax regime is a core element of our economic policy mix and a longstanding anchor of our offering to attract FDI.
In addition to our 12.5 per cent headline tax rate we will also ensure that we continue to play to our traditional strengths such as a forward-looking business environment and an educated and dynamic workforce.
However, as noted earlier, we need to be mindful of our reliance on corporation tax. My department has undertaken significant work on these vulnerabilities, showing that approximately one in every eight euro collected by the State in tax comes from the corporation tax payments of a very small number of firms. At the same time, our income tax system is heavily reliant on a relatively small number of employees; just 500,000 workers and 10 multinational companies account for over one third of our total tax revenue.
My department estimates that ‘excess’ corporation tax receipts - that is the amount which may be more vulnerable to a shock - could amount to €8-10 billion this year.
While these receipts are extremely welcome, they cannot be depended upon to fund permanent expenditure. To do so, would be to repeat the mistakes of the years leading up to the Global Financial Crisis.
It is therefore imperative that we treat these ‘excess’ receipts differently:
Following so soon after Brexit and COVID, it is a major achievement for our country to be in a position to put additional resources aside in order to prepare for future challenges, and to run a surplus.
And let me be clear:
It is therefore imperative that we prepare our public finances appropriately.
This year I will be directing €2 billion into the National Reserve Fund, and €4 billion in 2023.
These contributions effectively mean that we will have:
I will be introducing the necessary Dáil Resolution later this evening in order to give effect to the transfers to the fund for this year and next.
A Ceann Comhairle, I want to conclude on an optimistic note, and that is because despite the challenges facing our country, I am confident that we will be able to continue to support individuals, families and businesses.
This confidence is based on the fact that we approach this test from a position of strength. A record number of people at work, with a budget surplus, reserving money for the needs of the future, inside – not outside – efforts to reform global corporate tax and intervening to help homes and businesses with rising costs.
But we know we have many risks. Recent years have shown how quickly they can develop.
And I know we need to do more, build more homes, continue to improve public services, respond with courage and resolution to our defining challenge of climate change. But we can. And we will.
The political centre of Ireland, that is pro-European, supportive of enterprise, committed to a sustainable future for our public finances and for our environment has, with the hard work of the Irish people, helped get us ready for today. So soon after confronting a pandemic.
Many are looking at this budget today for confidence, for help.
Ceann Comhairle, we can, and we should be confident about our future.
We know our citizens need help, we know our employers need help and this budget aims to give this help.
I commend Budget 2023 to the House.