Minister Lawless highlights demand for Higher Education to surge by up to 19% by 2034
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Ó: An Roinn Breisoideachais agus Ardoideachais, Taighde, Nuálaíochta agus Eolaíochta
- Foilsithe: 9 Meitheamh 2026
- An t-eolas is déanaí: 9 Meitheamh 2026
The Department of Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science has today published “Projections of Demand for Higher Education 2025–2045”, highlighting strong expected growth in demand for full‑time higher education places over the coming years.
The report shows that student numbers are projected to rise significantly over the next decade, increasing by up to 19% from current levels.
Demand for places is projected to peak in 2034, before easing towards 2045.
The key driver of this growth is rising numbers of Irish school leavers reaching college age, linked to higher birth rates between 2007 and 2012. Additionally, continued growth in postgraduate study is expected, particularly among non‑EU students.
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Welcoming the publication, Minister Lawless said: “This report highlights the continued strength, success and attractiveness of Ireland’s higher education sector. With more than 200,000 students now enrolled across our institutions, demand for higher education is expected to continue growing over the next decade. My focus, and that of my Department, is to ensure we have the policies and planning in place to meet this demand by keeping higher education accessible and responsive, while continuing to uphold the strong international reputation and quality of Irish higher education.”
These projections, based on the latest available data, provide a more stable basis for planning than the last estimates, published in 2022, which were affected by uncertainty arising from Brexit and the COVID‑19 pandemic.
The report will inform future policy development and investment decisions to ensure that the higher education system can meet growing demand while maintaining quality and accessibility.
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Projections have been developed at undergraduate and postgraduate level, and broken down by student domicile - Irish, Great Britain, Northern Ireland, EU and Non-EU.
Total enrolment
Enrolment demand for full-time higher-education is projected to increase over the coming decade. Under different scenarios, this is projected to grow by between 33,000 and 39,000, reaching a peak of between 244,347 and 250,857 (in 2033/34). This represents an increase of between 16% and 19% from the current (2024/25) baseline enrolment of 211,540.
Undergraduate
It is projected that enrolment demand at undergraduate level will grow by almost 27,000 over the next eight years, from 177,360 in 2024/2025 to 204,400 in 2033/34.
The increase in demand is largely driven by demographics: Ireland experienced high annual births of over 70,000 in the period 2007-2012 (provisional number of births in 2024 was 54,062) and these individuals are now reaching higher education age. More than 80% of the projected 27,000 increase is accounted for by Irish students.
Postgraduate
Future growth in postgraduate enrolment demand is also projected; however, the overall level of growth remains highly sensitive to enrolment trends for non-EU students.
This cohort of students has seen significant growth in enrolments over the past two decades, increasing from 1,865 in 2007 to 13,615 in 2024/2025.
Three distinct growth scenarios for postgraduate students were modelled to account for future uncertainty.
Total postgraduate enrolment demand is projected to increase by between almost 6,000 and 12,000 over the next decade, increasing from 34,180 in 2024/2025 and reaching a peak of between 39,968 and 46,478 in 2032/33, depending on which scenario is considered.