Pest Risk Analysis Unit - Irish Pest Emergence Maps (IPEM)

Overview - IPEM

Irish pest emergence maps (IPEM) is a publicly available web tool that can be accessed at www.pestmaps.ie or through the Link below. It visually displays the dates when insect pests are predicted to complete their lifecycle development and emerge as adults across the country (ROI). The predictions use Met Éireann's air temperature data and incorporates data to estimate the influence of several IPCC climate change scenarios for future dates (2035 and 2055) across the ROI. It was produced in a collaborative project between UCD, DAFM pest risk analysis unit (PRAU), Met Éireann and the UK Met Office, funded through DAFM's Policy & Strategic Studies Research Call.

The tool uses degree-day models to estimate species emergence dates and the number of generations they could potentially complete within one year. A selection of pre-modelled species are available as drop-down options in the tool. Alternatively, the user can input their own degree-day model parameters to predict a potential species development.

The tool allows for maps and data to be downloaded and incorporated in mapping programs such as GIS and QGIS.

Research Project - OPRAM

The research project to produce the IPEM tool was called the “Online Pest Risk Analysis Modelling” (OPRAM). The OPRAM project was 2-year funded DAFM PSSRC. The purpose of the project was primarily to produce the IPEM tool for use in (1) pest risk assessments (PRA) conducted by the PRAU and (2) to refine pest surveillance dates tor regulated quarantine organisms across the ROI. The second goal of the project was to make the tool publicly available so that it could be used by non-DAFM personnel such as academia and other invasive species assessments.

The project is an example of making science and data more accessible. We are grateful for the time and contributions of all the stakeholders that guided the development of the tool.

OPRAM Project Team

Jon Yearsley (UCD): is an Associate Professor of Ecological Modelling in the School of Biology and Environmental Science, UCD (https://people.ucd.ie/jon.yearsley), and lead of the Ecological Modelling Research Group at UCD. An important focus of the research is developing ecological models for invasive pests. These models include: species spread (e.g. airborne spread of ash dieback, spread of marine larvae), associating local meteorological conditions to the timing of pest lifecycles, population dynamics of agricultural pests (e.g. aphids).

Paul Brett (NBDC): Paul Brett is the Invasive Species Pathways Action Plan Officer at the National Biodiversity Data Centre (NBDC) since September 2025. He is responsible for the Shared Island Invasive Species Pathway Action Plan work programme regarding horizon scanning, risk assessments and pathway analysis. He was previously a postdoctoral research fellow in UCD from 2023 until 2025 working on the OPRAM Project.

Conor Francis McGee (DAFM): Is an Agricultural Inspector specialising in Horizon Scanning and Risk Assessment of invasive plant pests in DAFM. He works with the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation (EPPO) Expert Working Group (EWG) and Phytosanitary Measures Panel (PPM) developing PRAs for Ireland and the EPPO region (https://pra.eppo.int/). He represents DAFM on the EU Commission Annexes working group (AWG) for proposing phytosanitary measures on plant pest species in EU Legislation. Currently he chairs the International Pest Risk Research Group (IPRRG - https://pestrisk.org/) committee producing webinars on invasive species research and organising the annual scientific conferences. He has an extensive background in environmental and horticultural research (Google Scholar).

Andy Bourke (DAFM): is an Assistant Agricultural Inspector at the DAFM, specialising in pest risk analysis since 2020. He conducts Pest Risk Analysis (PRAs), undertakes horizon scanning, and develops risk assessment tools for invasive plant pests.

He is a member of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Horizon Scanning Working Group, which produces monthly scientific newsletters published in the EFSA Journal. He also represents DAFM on the EFSA Network for Risk Assessment and EU Commission working groups on pests proposed for regulation and deregulation.

Deborah Hemming (Met Office): is the Lead for Climate and Nature at the Met Office and Scientific Manager for the Climate and Nature team and the integrated Climate and Nature Lead at the Met Office. Her team’s work focuses on understanding and modelling the interactions between climate and terrestrial species and ecosystems, with a particular emphasis on phenological changes and their implications for ecosystem resilience. She has a strong focus on the relevance and importance of ensuring science addresses policy needs. She has over 110 peer reviewed publications and is a member of many organisations and scientific working groups that advise on various aspects of relevance to climate and nature.

Neil Kaye (Met Office): is a Senior Software Developer in the Climate and Nature team within the Met Office (UK). He has been the lead designer and developer of multiple web tools focussed on visualising and analysing climate data. He develops and delivers web tools to create maps and graphs to show pest phenology timings. He provides expert analysis of climate data. He provides expert data visualisation consultancy and develops unique and engaging data visualisations.

Klara Finkele (Met Éireann): is the agricultural meteorologist within the Research and Application Division of Met Éireann. She is responsible for developing Met Eireann’s weather related services for agriculture such as plant and animal diseases, forest fire risk, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and atmospheric dispersion applications (e.g. volcanic ash, Foot and Mouth disease, Bluetongue etc). She also chairs the AGMET group (agmet.ie), an interdisciplinary group that have recently instigated ISMON (Irish Soil Moisture Observation Network).

Barry Coonan (Met Éireann): is part of the Climate Services Division in Met Éireann working in areas of climate parameter gridding, extremes analysis and climate statistics, and is a member of the National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) group within the division.

Padraig Flattery (Met Éireann): is the senior climatologist in Met Éireann’s climate services division. He works on analysis of Ireland’s past and future climate, engages in research and communication activities, and works with a range of stakeholders in Ireland and abroad. He is also involved in Ireland’s national framework for climate services (NFCS), which aims to unite the producers and users of climate information to help Ireland adapt to climate change.

OPRAM Stakeholder focus group participants: Michael Gaffney (Teagasc); Anne Marie Hamilton (Coillte); Andy Doyle; Archie Murchie (AFBI); Colette O’Flynn (NBDC); Dominic Eyre (DEFRA); Florentine Spaans (AFBI); Francis Lucy (ATU); Graeme Cross; Louise McNamara (Teagasc); Stephen Kildea (Teagasc); Joseph McNamara (DAFM); Mary Canty (DAFM)