Minister O’Brien welcomes EirGrid’s Winter Outlook which forecasts improved picture compared to last winter
- Published on: 16 October 2025
- Last updated on: 16 October 2025
Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment Darragh O’Brien has welcomed the publication of the 2025/2026 Winter Outlook from EirGrid. The Winter Outlook is an annual report that focuses on the 5-month period of peak electricity demand between November and April and examines the risks to having sufficient generation capacity over those peak demand weeks. The Winter Outlook 2025/2026 shows an improved picture from last year, due in large part to work undertaken through the Security of Supply programme.
A key part of the Security of Supply programme is the provision and availability of Temporary Emergency Generation (TEG) units.
The Security of Supply Programme was developed in response to Ireland’s challenging generation adequacy position, at a time when the energy crisis brought this matter into sharp focus internationally. The Commission for the Regulation of Utilities (CRU) set out a range of actions in 2021 to provide additional stability and resilience to the power system in Ireland. This programme of work included the procurement of Temporary Emergency Generation (TEG) capacity, to remain available until the necessary replacement capacity has been secured from the market. Currently approximately 650MW of Temporary Emergency Generation is available on the system, located at North Wall, Huntstown, Shannonbridge and Tarbert. The programme of work also contracted the retention of Moneypoint beyond its expected closure date in 2025 – running on Heavy Fuel Oil instead of coal and, thus, providing additional resilience to the electricity system till 2029. It should be noted that Moneypoint and TEG units are out-of-market generators, and are only used if and when required to support security of supply.
Commenting on the report, Minister O’Brien said:
“The Winter Outlook shows that the national electricity system will operate within the level of risk that is set by the Department. This, in turn, means that there is a very low probability of the system entering a state of emergency due to insufficient generation being available to meet demand. The Winter Outlook risk metric would be 14 times higher than the level set as acceptable by the Department if those additional generation units had not been delivered by the programme, showing the key value of actions by my Department, EirGrid and CRU over the last few years – to secure Ireland’s generation capacity.
“Separate to generation capacity at a national level, there is a range of actions being delivered by ESB Networks as part of its Winter Resilience Plan, to ensure that the resilience of our grid is improved in vulnerable locations to storm damage. The significant impact of recent storms highlights the need for greater investment to ensure our electricity network is resilient to adverse weather events. The National Development Plan will provide for the provision of up to €3.5 billion in additional equity to support an unprecedented investment in electricity grid infrastructure over the period from 2026 to 2030. Investment in our electricity grid to update our power generation systems – to enhance energy security and long-term affordability for consumers and businesses – is a priority for me, and for this Government as a whole.”
ENDS
NOTES TO THE EDITOR
The EirGrid Winter Outlook 2025/2026 report is available at this link: https://cms.eirgrid.ie/sites/default/files/publications/EirGrid-Winter-Outlook-2025-26.pdf.
- The Winter Outlook shows an improvement in the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) to 1.1 hours this winter, compared to 3.6 hours in winter 2024/2025 and 21 hours in winter 2023/2024.
- This is due to the delivery of Temporary Emergency Generation (TEG) and Retention of Existing Units (REU) such as Moneypoint and the addition of new generation from the market.
- The 1.1 hours is inside the 3 hours per year standard, meaning the system will operate within the level of risk set by the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment.
- If TEG and REU were excluded the LOLE would be 43.4 hours, which underlines the significant role these units play in keeping Ireland’s electricity generation capacity secure.