“This morning saw the publication of two important pieces of economic analysis.

“Firstly, the OECD published its usual summer economic assessment where, unsurprisingly, the conflict in the Middle East dominates the outlook for the global economy. Against this backdrop, the external outlook is somewhat downbeat, as higher energy prices erode real incomes and heightened geopolitical uncertainty dampens investment in many of Ireland’s main trading partners.

“I welcome the OECD forecasts for the Irish economy, which show that Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) is projected to expand by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.5 per cent in 2027.

“While these forecasts remain broadly consistent with our own assessment of the economy, they underline the more challenging international environment that now exists.

“Similar to the Annual Progress Report which my Department published in April, the OECD assesses the macroeconomic impact of a scenario in which energy prices remain higher for a sustained period of time; in these circumstances, global growth would likely be considerably lower both this year and next, an outcome that would weigh on domestic economic prospects.

“All-in-all, the OECD’s analysis highlights why we must plan for all eventualities at this very uncertain time.

“We must do all we can to maintain Ireland’s standing as a competitive and supportive environment for inward and indigenous investment and quality employment.

“Government will continue to invest in human capital - in education, skills, training, especially in the context of mounting evidence that AI is beginning to impact on the labour market.

“We will continue to invest in key strategic infrastructure - energy, water, sewage, housing, transport - to boost Ireland’s competitiveness further.

“Finally, we must continue to build up our fiscal buffers including through transfers to the Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure Climate and Nature Fund.

“Second, the European Commission today adopted its so-called ‘spring package’, whereby it assesses the Annual Progress Report of each Member State and makes recommendations for the year ahead.

“While there are some technicalities and legal issues, in broad terms the Commission finds that Ireland is compliant with the fiscal rules and I welcome this.

“I will discuss these issues with my EU counterparts at the ECOFIN meeting next week.

“Finally, these two external pieces will be complemented by two domestic pieces of the economic jigsaw tomorrow: the CSO will publish the national accounts for the first quarter of the year while my Department will publish the Fiscal Monitor (Exhequer Returns) for May.”