Over 400 responses received to consultation on the security of Ireland’s energy supply

Over 400 submissions have been received thus far to a consultation on the review of the security of energy supply of Ireland’s electricity and gas systems, which closes today, 28 October 2022. The consultation, carried out by the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications, invited feedback and evidence from all interested parties on the broad range of options that could be implemented to support Ireland’s security of supply framework.

The consultation document was accompanied by a technical analysis carried out by Cambridge Economic Policy Associates (CEPA).

All responses and submissions received as part of the consultation will be examined and given careful consideration. Following this review process, the Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications, Eamon Ryan, will bring his recommendations on the security of energy supply to Government.

The review of the security of energy supply of Ireland’s electricity and gas systems is focused on the period to 2030, but in the context of a sustainable transition to net zero emissions by 2050. It considers potential risks to both our natural gas and electricity supplies and examines a range of measures to mitigate these risks, including the need for additional capacity to import energy, to reduce energy use, energy storage, fuel diversification and renewable gases (such as biomethane and hydrogen).

This review does not seek to address the expected tight margins in electricity supply over the coming winters; these are being addressed through a programme of actions being undertaken by the CRU (Commission for Regulation of Utilities), with the support of EirGrid, the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications, and industry.

Commenting on the public consultation, Minister Ryan said:

ENDS

Technical analysis

CEPA have provided the department with a detailed technical analysis and a shorter non-technical summary. The technical analysis consists of three different elements:

• the identification and examination of risks
• the identification of options to mitigate these risks
• the appraisal of these options

The risks identified are examined as demand-side risks and supply-side risks. Demand-side risks include weather events and significant increases in demand. The supply-side risks identified are disruption to UK gas imports, geopolitical risks, electricity generation capacity deficits and low availability of wind generation.

A long list of mitigation options is then created and appraised against a set of key criteria to identify a short list of appropriate mitigation options for further analysis. The key selection criteria used were:

• consistency with the Climate Action Plan
• security of supply impact
• feasibility of implementation

A short list of mitigation options for both gas and electricity that could address potential security of supply gaps in the future are set as follows:

• strategic gas storage — gas storage that would only operate during periods in which there is a material risk of demand disruptions in Ireland
• strategic floating LNG — a floating LNG facility that would only operate during periods of a material risk of demand disruption in Ireland
• gas package — a combination of strategic storage, renewable gas (biomethane injection and hydrogen) and demand side response
• additional electricity interconnection — another 700MW interconnector to France in addition to the Celtic Interconnector
• additional pumped storage — an additional 360MW of pumped storage hydroelectricity capacity
• biomass plant — a 450MW dedicated biomass plant
• secondary fuel — increased secondary fuel storage beyond the current five-day storage requirement
• hydrogen plant conversion — converting a CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) to hydrogen
• electricity package — a combination of additional capacity of batteries and demand side response

All of these mitigation options were modelled under a number of shock scenarios to understand the impact of each mitigation option and the level of security of supply that each option provides. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, additional scenarios were requested as part of CEPA’s technical analysis to understand the potential impact of a full suspension of all Russian pipeline exports of natural gas to European markets on Irish security of supply. The analysis found that Ireland’s geographic location in Europe (that is, its close connection to Great Britain) helps mitigate the worst impacts of a supply disruption from Russia.

Options on the long list that have not been modelled in detail have not been ruled out at this point. The department is seeking views from interested parties on all matters in the consultation paper.

Considerations

The CEPA analysis highlights a number of points:

• the electricity measures in Climate Action Plan 2021 improve our security of supply – therefore implementation of these measures is critical to secure our energy supplies: for example: deployment of renewables; increasing our electricity interconnections to Northern Ireland, the UK and France; adding new conventional generation; battery storage; and increasing demand-side response
• with regard to natural gas security of supply, the risk of a physical disruption to gas supplies is low, but the impact of such a disruption is considered very high. A range of measures are available to strengthen Ireland’s position, each to different degrees

The consultation also seeks parties’ views on wider policy measures that be implemented to support Ireland’s security of supply framework, including:

• introducing joint electricity and gas network supply-demand assessment on an annual basis with the inclusion of hydrogen and renewables gases too
• implementing a requirement for a technical analysis of energy security of supply every two years and a formal review of security of energy supply every four years